000			01485nam a2200301 i 4500
001			202863
003			ES-MaBCM
005			20230405062548.0
008			160915t2016 uk||||| |||| 00| 0 eng d
020			_a978-1-847-94715-4
021			_axx
035			_a(OCoLC)1365120042
040			_cES-MaBCM
100	1		_aTetlock, Philip E. _9120380 _d1954- _q(Philip Eyrikson)
245	1	0	_aSuperforecasting _b: the art and science of prediction _cPhilip Tetlock, Dan Gardner
250			_a1st ed.
260			_aLondon : _bRH books, _c2016
300			_a340 p. _bgráf. _c20 cm
500			_aÍndice analítico
504			_aIncluye referencias bibliográficas
520			_aEveryone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week's meals. Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts' predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught?
650	2	7	_aEconomía _958453
650	2	7	_aCiencias sociales _957905
650	2	7	_aPrevisión económica _959887
650	2	7	_aPsicología _959969
700	1		_9120381 _aGardner, Dan _d1968-
942			_cBK _2udc
999			_c202863 _d202863