Superforecasting : the art and science of prediction
Tetlock, Philip E. 1954-
Superforecasting : the art and science of prediction Philip Tetlock, Dan Gardner .--1st ed. .-- London : RH books, 2016 .-- 340 p. gráf. 20 cm
Índice analítico
Incluye referencias bibliográficas
Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week's meals. Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts' predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught?
978-1-847-94715-4
Economía Ciencias sociales Previsión económica Psicología
Gardner, Dan 1968-
Superforecasting : the art and science of prediction Philip Tetlock, Dan Gardner .--1st ed. .-- London : RH books, 2016 .-- 340 p. gráf. 20 cm
Índice analítico
Incluye referencias bibliográficas
Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week's meals. Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts' predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught?
978-1-847-94715-4
Economía Ciencias sociales Previsión económica Psicología
Gardner, Dan 1968-